CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-06T17:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-06T17:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28519/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Source is the second instance of dimming seen in SDO AIA 193, located at E45 and stretching from N25-N35, starting at 2024-01-06T16:20Z. Source also includes the lovely rising loop seen in SDO AIA 171, which is first visible off the NE limb at about 2024-01-06T15:30Z with field line movement at the suspected footpoints on the disk at N25E45 and N25E35. Post-eruptive arcades seen starting at 2024-01-06T18:48Z between the two suspected footpoints. There was no STEREO A COR2 imagery available for this CME due to a large data gap from 2024-01-06T09:23Z to 2024-01-07T04:09Z. There was no clear arrival for this CME. An increase in solar wind speed at L1 just prior to 2024-01-10T18:00Z may be a weak coronal hole high speed stream and possible weak CME arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-10T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28521/1 Model Inputs: 2024-01-06T17:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=26.0, Speed=451.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2024-01-07T02:10Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-10T01:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-09T22:52Z Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-11T07:00Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-10T00:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240107_021000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gifLead Time: 52.02 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-01-07T20:59Z
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